Stochastic Modeling of Wholesale Price of Rohu in West Bengal, India

by R. K. Paul.

Abstract: Among the Indian major carps, rohu (Labeo rohita) is the most widely consumed fish in West Bengal. The wholesale price of rohu in West Bengal fluctuates over seasons due to the variations in production and market arrival. Thus, modelling and forecasting the monthly price behaviour over the years is of much practical importance. To this end, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) methodology has been successful in describing and forecasting the fishery dynamics of a wide variety of species in the past. In the present study ARIMA stochastic modelling is used for describing monthly wholesale price of rohu in west Bengal. The monthly wholesale price data from January’ 1996 to December 2004 has been taken for model building and the data from January’ 2005 to December’ 2005 has been used for validation of the model. The best ARIMA model is selected based on the minimum Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) and Baysian Information Criteria (BIC) values. It has been found that ARIMA (2,1,1) model described the data satisfactorily with the forecast values lie close to the actual price. The data analysis is carried out using SPSS software package.

Key Words: ARIMA model, Forecasting, Seasonality, Stationarity, SPSS, Wholesale price

R. K. Paul,

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