Stochastic Modeling of Wholesale Price of Rohu in West Bengal, India

by R. K. Paul.

Abstract: Among the Indian major carps, rohu (Labeo rohita) is the most widely consumed fish in West Bengal. The wholesale price of rohu in West Bengal fluctuates over seasons due to the variations in production and market arrival. Thus, modelling and forecasting the monthly price behaviour over the years is of much practical importance. To this end, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) methodology has been successful in describing and forecasting the fishery dynamics of a wide variety of species in the past. In the present study ARIMA stochastic modelling is used for describing monthly wholesale price of rohu in west Bengal. The monthly wholesale price data from January’ 1996 to December 2004 has been taken for model building and the data from January’ 2005 to December’ 2005 has been used for validation of the model. The best ARIMA model is selected based on the minimum Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) and Baysian Information Criteria (BIC) values. It has been found that ARIMA (2,1,1) model described the data satisfactorily with the forecast values lie close to the actual price. The data analysis is carried out using SPSS software package.

Key Words: ARIMA model, Forecasting, Seasonality, Stationarity, SPSS, Wholesale price

Author:
R. K. Paul, ranjitstat@gmail.com

READING THE ARTICLE: You can read the article in portable document (.pdf) format (261073 bytes.)

NOTE: The content of this article is the intellectual property of the authors, who retains all rights to future publication.

This page has been accessed 1507 times since NOVEMBER 30, 2010.


Return to the InterStat Home Page.