STOCHASTIC MODELING FOR RAINFALL IN HUMID SUBTROPICAL MONSOON REGION OF INDIA

Ripunjai Shukla, Manish Thrived, and Manoj Kumar.

Abstract: Rainfall is a phenomenon, which directly or indirectly affects all the sectors like agriculture, insurance, industry and other allied fields. Modeling data that correspond to rainfall accumulated over long periods of time presents the challenging problem of dealing with a random variable that has a point mass at zero which corresponds to dry periods that occur with positive probability. One way to overcome this difficulty it is assume that the data correspond to a normal variate that has been truncated and transformed. The dry periods correspond to the (unobserved) negative values and the wet periods correspond to some power of the positive ones.This manuscript identified the more comprehensive pattern of yearly extreme rainfall behavior based on the Markov Chain models. For this purpose, we derived annual maximum daily rainfall from 1956 to 2006 and frequency distribution table formed. The class interval treated as states and then uncertainty under various states occupied by formation of transition probability matrix.

Key Words: Extreme Value, Rainfall, Frequency Distribution, Markov Chain

Authors:
Ripunjai Shukla, ripu121@yahoo.co.in
Manish Thrived, manish_trivedi1976@yahoo.com
Manoj Kumar, msinha_09@rediffmail.com

Editor: Al-Nasser, Amjad D., amjadn@yu.edu.jo

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