Human- to- Human Transmission of Bird Flu

by Hassan S. M.

Abstract: This study presents a simulated situation of a population of total size N humans if the virus H5N1 might exchange genetic information which led to the formation of a new virus. This new virus could then infect humans and easily spread from human to human. It gives an important sight of a human population in Egypt and all over the world if the bird flu disease becomes pandemic for humans. In this work, a human to human stochastic epidemic model of bird flu is constructed assuming a population of total size N with an initial case. In small populations, the probability distribution of number of infected humans is well fitted to binomial distribution. On the other hand, the distribution of number of infected humans in large population is asymptotically normal with mean Nh(t) and variance Ng(t).

Key Words: Human-to-Human Bird-Flu, Stochastic Epidemic Model, Binomial Distribution, Kolomgrov Semenrov Goodness-of-fit Test, Characteristic Function

Author:
Hassan S. M., drhassn_242@yahoo.com

Editor: Weiming Ke, Weiming.ke@sdstate.edu

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