Time Series Modelling of Tourist Arrivals to Malaysia
by Mahendran Shitan.
Tourism comprises of the activities of persons traveling to and
staying in places outside their usual environment for not more than
one consecutive year. Tourism is one of the major foreign exchange
earners in Malaysia. Therefore, forecasting tourist arrivals
becomes important because it would enable tourist related industries
like airlines, hotels, food and catering services, etc., to plan and
prepare their activities in an optimal way. Previous studies have suggested various time
series models for modelling monthly tourist arrivals to Malaysia. Since then, new
observations have become available and it is important to update
these models. Therefore, in this paper we update and compare the performance of
three time series models for modelling tourist arrivals to Malaysia.
One of them is within the class of ARMA models and the other two are
in the class of ARFIMA models.
Time Series, Forecasting, ARMA, ARFIMA, Tourist Arrivals
Mahendran Shitan, firstname.lastname@example.org
Umesh B. Dubey, email@example.com
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