Forecasting sugarcane production in India with ARIMA model

by B. N. Mandal.

Abstract: Yearly sugarcane production data for the period of 1950-51 to 2002-03 of India were analyzed by time-series methods. Autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation functions were calculated for the data to identify the appropriate ARIMA model. Appropriate Box-Jenkins autoregressive integrated moving average model was fitted. Validity of the model was tested using standard statistical techniques. The forecasting power of autoregressive integrated moving average model was used to forecast sugarcane production for three leading years.

Key Words: ACF = autocorrelation function, ARIMA = autoregressive integrated moving average, PACF = partial autocorrelation function, sugarcane

B Mandal,

Editor: Ewing, Bradley,

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