Stochastic Modelling of Specific modes of HIV/AIDS Epidemic

By Olorunsola E. Olowofeso.

Abstract: This study is based on stochastic modelling of specific modes of transmission of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV)/AIDS in Nigeria. The models were developed for Mother - to - Child Transmission (MTCT) and Heterosexual transmission (HT). Chapman-Kolmogorov differential equation for birth - illness - death process was developed and solved by using Generating Function (GF) approach to obtain the governing equation. Based on certain mathematical assumptions, the governing equation produces the system of differential equation for both modes of transmission discussed. The Visual Basic program developed was used to solve the differential equations and the solution for each mode of transmission was obtained. From the results of the analysis, it was discovered that as time increases for (MTCT) the susceptible rate increases while the infected rate and AIDS cases decreases. However, in the heterosexual transmission, there are no significant observable changes in the rate of spread of the epidemic when the rate of sexual contact varied from 0.5 to 0.7 with constant infected rate of 0.1.

Key Words: Stochastic Modelling, Mother-to-child, Heterosexual, Generating function and HIV/AIDS Epidemic

Olorunsola E. Olowofeso,

Editor: Renato Di Lorenzo,

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