Study on Growth Models: A Critical Analysis with Reference to Andhra Pradesh and India

by Pradip Kumar Nandi and G Krishna Kanth.

Abstract: Different linear and nonlinear growth models are studied for the purpose of estimating the growth rate and fitting the best model, which will help in better future prediction. The use of R2, Adj. R2 or RMS as a measure of goodness of fit and, therefore, as a criterion for choosing the best model, is not sufficient. The criteria of randomness and normality of time-series data should be satisfied. This particular aspect of fitting trend and growth rate estimation is rarely given due importance by different researchers, as a result various misleading inferences are drawn in earlier studies. Keeping in this mind we have estimated the parameters of the model and could able to infer correctly. One most important thing we have observed here is that the area under the total foodgrain crop is declining day by day and this is due to the replacement of area by different cash crops. Projected production of total foodgrain is expected to be 13.87 million tones and 232.79 millio! n tones for Andhra Pradesh and India respectively.

Key Words: Linear and Nonlinear Growth model, Adj.R2, RMS, Run test, Shapiro-Wilk test

Authors:
Pradip Kumar Nandi, nandi_stat@yahoo.co.in
G Krishna Kanth, gkk_gss@rediffmail.com

Editor: Kundu, Debasis,kundu@iitk.ac.in

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